A theory of the cyclical production of laws and decrees

This working paper develops a theoretical model of how legislative output evolves over the course of a political term. Focusing on re-election strategies under asymmetric information, the model distinguishes between laws (visible to all voters) and decrees (visible only to organized interests).

It predicts a systematic pattern: early in the term, policymakers rely more on decrees to deliver targeted benefits, while closer to elections they shift towards laws, providing visible public goods and signalling competence to voters. This dynamic offers a theoretical explanation for observed legislative cycles and their implications for redistribution and policy outcomes.